Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 13.093498 14.962860 16.989247 19.347090 22.013271 24.932702 28.369840
2024-10-27 9.707695 12.068285 14.833172 18.303391 22.535031 27.519817 33.829554
2024-11-03 8.527163 11.180466 14.443492 18.737734 24.225746 30.988838 39.938989
2024-11-10 7.617117 10.468042 14.127867 19.148622 25.833102 34.399579 46.180733
2024-11-17 6.699254 9.595356 13.455810 18.947580 26.524124 36.568838 50.849281
2024-11-24 5.896250 8.772530 12.741264 18.577556 26.894681 38.265831 54.924821
2024-12-01 5.349710 8.240629 12.357051 18.595748 27.751022 40.620419 59.990554
2024-12-08 4.966554 7.900252 12.200718 18.901742 29.003867 43.569540 66.039960
2024-12-15 4.590243 7.527935 11.954470 19.035266 29.984284 46.152427 71.678216
2024-12-22 4.189530 7.076102 11.542470 18.869289 30.477489 48.014392 76.317871
2024-12-29 3.913576 6.795251 11.366174 19.043171 31.484876 50.683700 82.309258
2025-01-05 3.757866 6.695488 11.464301 19.651015 33.200630 54.523400 90.317201
2025-01-12 3.449562 6.317572 11.089474 19.474159 33.663731 56.461257 95.500182
2025-01-19 3.014283 5.680470 10.231362 18.422409 32.606386 55.886511 96.575813
2025-01-26 2.880145 5.564584 10.249593 18.859950 34.069526 59.497454 104.731599
2025-02-02 2.752907 5.448994 10.256812 19.273203 35.508770 63.138387 113.130096
2025-02-09 2.544620 5.162705 9.935114 19.070978 35.845488 64.910602 118.409757
2025-02-16 2.332299 4.849295 9.538297 18.698648 35.844434 66.083420 122.689159
2025-02-23 2.190998 4.662047 9.360732 18.716958 36.547956 68.521004 129.323164
2025-03-02 2.097144 4.561291 9.338655 19.024842 37.801363 71.999528 138.003700
2025-03-09 1.989528 4.422753 9.232039 19.159192 38.729749 74.928432 145.822893
2025-03-16 1.856746 4.219804 8.982326 18.992188 39.063319 76.768078 151.703746
2025-03-23 1.770569 4.108566 8.907731 19.167145 40.068124 79.905409 160.171869